When infinite ambitions meet finite resources, you inevitably have a problem – and so it is as experts and governments collide with the reality of automotive companies not having enough access to the required raw materials as they try to nut out the nitty-gritty within the laudable goal of getting as many people into electric vehicles as quickly as possible.
This shortage is already serious enough to be regularly cited as holding back the transition (have you seen the waiting times for a new EV recently?), and they’re amplified by control of known supplies being mainly in politically unstable countries.
There might be mitigations of course, such as new technology being developed. But for all the shock and awe of the changes we face, the harsh truth is that the work that underpins it has taken years to develop. There’s a risk that we might even be betting the farm on something we don’t have.
That’s why potential missteps, some of which might not even be seen as such until we have the benefit of hindsight, require serious debate.
While widely hailed as game-changing in terms of positively shifting global attitudes about the green revolution, one detail of the Inflation Reduction Act the US announced this summer that’s being hotly debated now is the decision to offer a purchase incentive of up to $40,000 (£34,560) on medium and heavy-duty electric trucks.
The trigger for the arguments is the out-of-the-blue announcement that the Tesla Semi truck – talked about for four years but seemingly left on the backburner – is going into production, with the first examples set to be used by Pepsi from this winter, and with a production goal of 50,000 units a year by 2024. It’s worth highlighting, though, that other truck makers are also looking to get in on the act. As so often, Tesla is leading the headlines but far from the only one attempting to seize opportunity from the diversion.
But are big trucks the best use of the limited battery materials that we have access to today? It’s a tough question to answer until the final statistics are official, but reports put the smallest Semi battery pack at 600kWh (longer-range models are rumoured to be getting 1000kWh packs) – as much used in a dozen Tesla Model 3 saloons. What’s more, as a result of the Semi’s weight and the weight that it needs to haul, its battery pack alone is reported to weigh 3500kg, with efficiency consequently rated at around two miles per kWh – half that of a typical electric car).
Word is that the incentive has made selling one Semi more profitable than those dozen Model 3s. What we know of margins in this industry that’s likely true, and which capitalist would argue with Tesla’s decision? Whether it’s the right move for Earth or the best use of taxpayers’ money is another argument entirely, though.
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