Price hike for used diesels as new car supply dries up

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4 mins read

5 August 2025

The values of some used diesel cars are actually increasing despite the fading appeal of the powertrain in the new car market, say leading vehicle valuation experts.

In the first half of 2025, just 58,722 new diesels were registered, down 11.3% on 2024. This continues a decline that can be traced to 2017, amid the fallout from the Dieselgate scandal and concerns about future vehicle taxation and emissions penalties.

Diesel’s days appear numbered. Only a few car makers still produce diesel models – among them Audi, BMW and JLR (especially with the Defender) – and other types, such as petrol, hybrid and battery-electric vehicles, are experiencing rising demand.

For most diesel models, this is reflected in increased rates of depreciation, but, bucking this trend, some have actually increased in value over what they were worth a year ago.

For example, according to Cap HPI, a three-year-old diesel Honda HR-V with 60,000 miles is worth 11.3% more today than the same model was at the same point last year. In addition, the value of an equivalent Mercedes CLS has risen 8% and a Ford Mondeo 6.5%.

Explaining the figures, Dylan Setterfield, head of forecast strategy at Cap HPI, said: “There is still demand for diesel in the used market from both consumers and dealers, with fuel economy continuing to be a significant factor for high-mileage drivers.

“New [diesel] car volumes have been decreasing for some time, and this is translating into reduced used car volumes. We expect these reductions to be partially offset by the ongoing reduction in consumer demand and that prices will behave similarly to petrol [car prices] in the next few years.”

However, the market is experiencing wild valuation extremes and some models are instead depreciating at higher than expected rates compared with what they were worth last year.

Those suffering the biggest falls in value include the Ssangyong Korando 2.2D, with a three-year-old example with 60,000 miles worth 24.5% less. An equivalent Vauxhall Astra is down 20.2% in value and a Range Rover Evoque down 12.7%.

These losses are atop the models’ regular year-on-year depreciation. Setterfield said: “The Korando’s falls seem to have been caused by uncertainty and confusion in the marketplace as the brand transitioned from Ssangyong to KGM. Astra diesels with above-average mileage are now suffering increased penalties, while the Evoque’s figure can be explained by an increase in used volumes following a shortage of supply.”

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Consumers unsure about buying a diesel are unlikely to be reassured by these wild extremes.

Fortunately, these cars aside, the bulk of the sector is actually quite stable, with the average three-year-old diesel worth just 2.1% less than its equivalent 12 months ago. The equivalent figure for a petrol car is 1.3% less.

At 12 months and 20,000 miles, their positions are reversed, with the diesel worth 1.4% less and the petrol 1.6% less.

Philip Nothard, insight director at Cox Automotive International, a vehicle auction and remarketing company, welcomed the return of stability to most areas of the diesel market.

He said: “After the highs of the immediate post-Covid years, when even two- to four-year-old diesels were worth 73% of their new price and ones less than a year old 98%, order is returning to the market. In 2023, diesel values fell at a steeper rate than petrol as sentiment shifted to the latter and, thanks to tax changes, to some extent also to EVs.

“The fall in the sales of new diesels that year means that today, there are only155,000 three-year-old diesels on the road. Values are sliding but just about holding firm, with two- to four-year-old diesels currently worth around 51% of their new price compared with petrol cars at 58%. Electric cars are worth around 36%.”

The shortage of used diesels and the stability of their values are reflected on dealer forecourts.

Motorpoint is a leading car supermarket and typically stocks around 5000 cars, most no older than four years. Currently, only around 350 of them are diesels and diesel hybrids. They include a 2023 Audi A4 35 TDI S Line S Tronic with 14,500 miles for £22,699 and a 2022 Ford Kuga 1.5 Ecoblue ST-Line X with 17,000 miles for £19,999.

Motorpoint Group CEO Mark Carpenter believes that although demand for diesels has fallen considerably, the declining number of new ones being produced means that used examples will soon be the only ones readily available to customers.

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However, he doesn’t expect that any future increase in demand for them will necessarily trigger a steep rise in their prices.

He said: “While any uplift in demand for used diesel vehicles will have some impact on prices, with fewer new diesel cars on the road, used diesel stock will continue to get older, reducing its appeal for motorists wanting a nearly new car.”