Porsche predicts profit dip in 2024 after three record years

He explained that Porsche is at the bottom of a fiscal "V-curve", meaning it has made significant investment in new products but has yet to bring them all to volume production.

"We have not achieved volume production yet, and if you do this across five volume lines, it is obvious what happens," he said.

Asked by Autocar if Porsche would have a more positive 2024 outlook if the Macan had been launched as scheduled, chief financial officer Lutz Meschke said: "Even if it had been launched earlier, looking at the earnings side, I don't think it would have given us a benefit or advantage."

Blume concurred and suggested that the firm has learned valuable lessons from the Macan development programme that will help it avoid similar delays on upcoming cars. "It is not a secret that when founding Cariad, we had several issues during the ramp-up. I believe the decision was the right one – to centralise everything."

"Last year, we started a complete restructuring and introduced a new leadership team to strengthen the platform," he added, referring chiefly to the appointment of ex-Mercedes technology boss Sajjad Khan as the boss of Porsche's new technology division, Car-IT. 

Blume said that Khan "will be in a position to support and promote the Porsche requirements" when it comes to developing new Volkswagen Group architectures and software platforms. 

"Over the next few years, we believe there will be stabilisation," he said. "We are not hiding from headwinds. It will be a demanding year, but we will act on this solid foundation." 

Porsche reaffirmed its ambition for 80% of its sales to be electric in 2030 but said that goal is contingent on customer demand and the “development of electromobility” in different global markets.

Blume said that adhering to that self-imposed timeline is "very much dependent on development in world regions".

He referred to a general "flattening out" in EV demand across Europe as one factor in the prevailing uncertainty and said "it is very important to have plannable conditions" when deciding its investment strategy. 

SUVs remain the firm's strongest sellers, with the Macan and Cayenne accounting for more than 87,000 sales apiece in 2023, compared with 50,146 911s (up 24% year on year), 40,869 Taycans and 20,518 718s (Boxsters and Caymans).

Porsche says its strong 2023 performance stands it in good stead for 2024, which will be one of its busiest years yet for new product launches, with new versions of the Macan, Panamera, Taycan and 911 – which will gain a hybrid option for the first time – all due on sale by 2025. 

The long-awaited electric successor to the 718 is due to go on sale in 2025 and an electric Cayenne SUV will follow close behind. 

In around 2027, Porsche will add a new model line to its portfolio for the first time since 2019, in the form of a new luxury SUV “intended to tap into new customer potential, particularly in the US and China”. Codenamed K1, it will be the first car to use Porsche’s new SSP Sport EV platform and its first seven-seater. 

Meschke explained that while these substantial investments "may put pressure on returns in the short term", the brand's medium-term and long-term forecasts remain positive.

"We are investing, even in challenging times, in our innovative and high-quality products," he said.