Car makers brace for huge financial impact of Trump tariffs

Car makers in the UK and Europe are bracing for what for many will be the biggest financial shock since Covid when the newly announced 25% tariff on cars imported into the US are applied on 2 April. The tariffs apply to all cars and light commercials imported into the US that aren't covered by the Mexico-US-Canada automotive tariff agreement, significantly raising the cost of doing business in the US. Firms including Aston Martin, Audi, Bentley, BMW and JLR were relying on healthy sales in the US to balance out crashing demand in China and a weaker European market. “It's a perfect storm for the European auto industry,” said David Bailey, professor of business economics at the Birmingham Business School. “UK auto already has a low-volume crisis, with plants operating well below capacity.” The US is UK’s second largest car export market after the EU, with 101,100 cars shipped in 2024, according to data from the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders. The lobbying body called the tariff hike "disappointing". JLR was by far the largest British automotive exporter to the US, with sales up by 29% to 116,294 cars last year, of which around two thirds were built in the UK. Ultra-luxury brands including Aston Martin, Bentley, McLaren and Rolls-Royce accounted for around 9000 car imports there last year. JLR chose not to comment on the tariffs except to say it was awaiting further information. The share value of JLR owner Tata Motors dropped 5.6% after the news. Ineos Automotive stated: "We are outraged that the tariff situation with the US has been neglected by the EU. "[US] president [Donald] Trump has been very clear on his intention to implement tariffs on the auto industry. He has been asking for fairness and reciprocity and yet European leaders have not come to the table to negotiate a better solution." The 25% tariff comes on top of the 2.5% duty already paid by car makers importing into the US and is paid on the ‘landing’ price of the car, minus the dealer margin. The tariff will in effect add 15% to the recommended retail price of the car, estimated the bank Bernstein in a note to investors. Car makers will have to choose whether to pass on the cost to customers or absorb it and take the hit on margins. Given the size of the tariff compared with the 10% that most analysts had been expecting earlier in the year, most will have no choice but to increase prices. “We are assessing different scenarios on how to handle it, but it will be finally passed on to the consumer,” Bentley CEO Frank-Steffen Walliser said earlier in March after the tariffs had been announced but before the percentage had been revealed. “At the end of the day, the consumer will have to pay it, and this would have an impact on the business, very clearly”. Trump said the tariffs “addressed a critical threat to US security” and would bring vehicle manufacturing back to the country, creating 2.8 million jobs and growing the economy by $728 billion. Some car companies have already said they will increase their US manufacturing footprint. Hyundai announced it would invest $21bn (£16.3bn) to increase its vehicle production in the country and develop new technology there, including autonomous driving capability. Audi has said it's in discussion over which models can be localised in the US. However, JLR is unlikely to build in the US to mitigate the tariffs, according to Ian Henry, head of consultancy AutoAnalysis. “You can’t just do that overnight. They don’t have the supply chain in place and a CKD [completely knocked-down kit] plant would face tariffs on components anyway,” he said. Car makers also face the problem of not knowing how long the tariffs will remain in place amid a chaotic decision-making process at the White House. “They could be a negotiating tactic and therefore very short-lived or they might not,” Henry said. “Car makers can ride out temporary turbulence, but if they last for four years, that’s a much more serious issue.” Even those car makers with plants in the US will face higher costs on the components they import. Trump claimed that of the eight million cars built in the US last year, US-built content amounted to only half the total amount. “Therefore, of the 16 million cars bought by Americans, only 25% of the vehicle content can be categorized as Made in America,” a White House fact sheet published in support of the tariffs stated. The local content of BMW SUVs made in Spartanburg, South Carolina, is below 30%, according to documentation seen by Henry. BMW imports engines from Europe for fitment into cars assembled in the US facility, which in theory will now be subject to tariffs from 2 April. The impact on car makers including BMW, Mercedes-Benz and Volvo exporting from the US into Europe could be amplified by potential retaliatory tariffs from the EU. “We will now assess this announcement, together with other measures the US is envisaging in the next days,” European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen said in a statement. “Tariffs are taxes – bad for businesses, worse for consumers equally in the US and the European Union.” Bernstein said in a note: “This would impact the SUVs that BMW and Mercedes produce in the US for global markets, like the BMW X5 and X7 and the Mercedes GLE and GLS." The UK has less room to retaliate and will instead seek to negotiate a carve-out, the Chancellor of the Exchequer has suggested. “We're not at the moment at a position where we want to do anything to escalate these trade wars,” Rachel Reeves told Sky News. “Trade wars are no good for anyone.” The financial impact of the tariffs if extended to the end of the year would hit Stellantis worst, knocking back its profit margin by 5.1 percentage points, according to Bernstein analysis. BMW is set to drop by 2.0 points, Mercedes by 2.2 points and the Volkswagen Group by 1.5 pts. All financial predications are pure guesswork, however, given that Trump could backtrack at any moment. As one industry watcher said: “Basically, it’s a mess.”

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Car makers brace for huge financial impact of Trump tariffs

All cars and light commercial vehicles imported into the US will be hit with a 25% tariff from 2 April

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Car makers brace for huge financial impact of Trump tariffs

All cars and light commercial vehicles imported into the US will be hit with a 25% tariff from 2 April

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